The current price is 1.1206 and trading below the falling 40 week moving average of 1.1586. The price has clearly ruptured the Fibonacci 38.2% retracement level of 1.1338, based on the entire range traded since February 2025. The downside target is 1.0881, which matches the Fibonacci 61.8% retracement level from the high, based on the same period. The weekly MACD-V indicator value of -46 also reflects the negative short-term trend.
In spite of the current weakness, it is worth casting a view of the trend development ever since 2008, where an extended period of lower highs and lower lows was evident. This pattern is no longer in force and has given way to a series of higher highs and higher lows which developed between 2022 and 2025. One could therefore conclude that the current US$ strength will be short-lived, in spite of rising US interest rates.
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